Novum Alpha – Daily Analysis 12 January 2021 (10-Minute Read)

Top of the Tuesday to you as markets took a topsy turvy tumble on concerns that equities may have gotten ahead of any signs of an actual economic recovery.  

In brief (TL:DR)

  • U.S. stocks fell for the first time in five sessions with the S&P 500 (-0.66%), blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.29%), and tech-centric Nasdaq Composite (-1.25%) all down as investors started the week in a cautious mood with equity prices near all-time highs.
  • Asian stocks were mixed on Tuesday after U.S. stocks fell over concerns that equities may have reached a peak bubble state. 
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 1.15% from 1.12%, the highest level since March as poor job data increased the expected size of stimulus (yields rise when bond prices fall). 
  • The dollar held its recent advance with demand supported by elevated Treasury yields.
  • Oil was mostly flat with February 2021 contracts for WTI Crude Oil (Nymex) (-0.06%) at US$52.22 from US$52.25 as it became clear that Saudi Arabia’s alleged production cuts were not as first expected. 
  • Gold added to losses with February 2021 contracts for Gold (Comex) (-0.50%) falling to US$1,841.50 from US$1,850.80 against a rising dollar and Treasury yields. 
  • Bitcoin (-5.29%) fell sharply to US$35,015 going into the week as the weekend saw thinner trading volumes and profit taking during Asian trading hours as inflows into exchanges galloped ahead of outflows (inflows typically suggest that traders are looking to sell Bitcoin in anticipation of lower prices). 

In today’s issue…

  1. This Year May Be Great For Jobs, Bad for Stocks
  2. Dollar, Gold & Bitcoin 
  3. Balking at Bitcoin’s Bubbling?

Market Overview

Another manic Monday saw a broad selloff in stocks on the second trading week of the new year. But it wasn’t all doom and gloom across the markets.
As indices increasingly weigh tech-heavy, shares in the largest tech firms corrected sharply even while bank stocks eked out decent upticks on a day when most of the market was bathed in red. 
In the morning open, Asian markets were mostly a mixed bag, weighing a bounty of considerations from a declining U.S. market to the prospect of more fiscal stimulus in the U.S. buoying Asian stocks. 
Sydney’s ASX 200 (+0.12%) and Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 (+0.27%) were up slightly at the open while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (-0.05%) and Seoul’s KOSPI (-0.68%) were lower.

1. This Year May Be Great For Jobs, Bad for Stocks

  • Economist forecasts a swift recovery in the U.S. job market, which may be detrimental for stock markets who have come to expect fiscal stimulus and continued loose monetary policy 
  • Rising job prospects may test the theories behind growth stocks and investors may start to look more closely at inflated valuations and assess firms more closely according to actual numbers
To the casual observer, our current epoch seems to be one simmered in irony, stewed in contradiction and poured over with a reduction of paradox.
Because even as the coronavirus pandemic continues to rage through much of the world, especially in the rich economies of Europe and the U.S., markets don’t appear to have received the memo.
Drunk on a heady cocktail of near-zero interest rates as well as monetary and fiscal stimulus, stocks and other risk assets have spent most of this year setting new records and then beating them just as quickly.
But that may be set to change.
Data from IHS Markit suggests that employment growth in the U.S. this year is on track to hit 6.7 million non-farm jobs by December, putting it well above the record 4.6 million jobs added to the U.S. economy in 1946, during the unprecedented post-war boom.
In terms of percentage growth however, job growth is forecast to be 5%, or slightly less than half of the 11% the U.S. enjoyed in 1946.
And while employment growth in 2021 is forecast to mark a sharp turnaround from the 9.4 million jobs lost last year, it’s still well short of fully recovering all the jobs lost because of the coronavirus pandemic.
The job forecasts also assume a successful coronavirus inoculation program and no additional shocks to the U.S. economy.
But such a rapid recovery in jobs presents investors with a dilemma.
On the one hand, job recovery could lead to more robust consumer spending, fueled by optimism over the economy.
But a robust return towards full employment could also provide the platform for more hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve policy, a gradual raising of interest rates and a reduced appetite for the expansive fiscal policies that have fueled the most recent rally in stocks and other risk assets.
And that could trigger unexpected pullbacks in the market.
The other issue is that investors who had paid eye-watering valuations to participate in growth stocks will now have to contend with the prospect of those chickens coming home to roost.
During dire economic times, postulation allows for inflated valuation, but when real numbers start being parsed through firms, a sudden withdrawal of stimulus could very easily catch investors off guard.
In this regard, a reliance on the familiar themes of growth stocks via the tech sector may not necessarily be the most prudent path forward.
And while value stocks have seen their “value” languishing, as the economy picks up, the deployment of that capital stock could quite rapidly translate into real returns.
Depending on one’s view of the next phase of economic growth, much can be said about investors taking a bet on value retailers such as Target (+0.87%) and Walmart (+0.45%) and affordable airlines such as Southwest.
Banks which have managed to avoid most of the fallout from the pandemic (through the non-exercise of drawdowns and provisions) may be in the driver’s seat for the next phase as regulators target Big Tech for its outsize influence and concentration of power. 

2. Dollar, Gold & Bitcoin

  • Expect a continued dynamic relationship between gold, Bitcoin and the dollar, with sudden bouts of being oversold and overbought in each asset class
  • The prospect of expansive fiscal stimulus will continue to weigh on the dollar long term, making gold and other purported inflation hedges bullish long term 
With the prospect of greater fiscal stimulus emanating from a Democrat-led Washington on the horizon, gold was quietly languishing as investors poured into stocks and even Bitcoin.
But Goldman Sachs (+1.29%) and Citigroup (+1.64%) which had both forecast gold’s continued performance right through 2021 and onwards to 2023, appear to be seeing their predictions bear fruit. 
On the Monday of the second week of 2021, gold finally stopped its longest string of daily declines since November as investors weighed the impact of a recently resurgent dollar and a rise in Treasury yields against expectations of trillion-dollar fiscal stimulus.
Up till Monday, a rising dollar and bond yields as well as reduced fears over inflation, had seen both Bitcoin (often touted as a hedge against inflation) and gold flushed in a mighty selloff.
But as incoming U.S. President-elect Joe Biden is already mulling over fresh multi-trillion-dollar stimulus, those earlier concerns, ever present, have returned into sharp focus.
Now that the Democrats have won control of the Senate, it will be easier to pass more substantial stimulus packages which the incoming Biden administration has already indicated is on the cards.
One of the first priorities according to the Democratic President-elect is to ensure that more substantial sums reach the vast majority of Americans who are still continuing to suffer the economic effects of the pandemic.
Inflation fears however, may still be somewhat overstated.
With plenty of spare capacity in the U.S. economy, and elevated levels of unemployment, there remains little risk of overheating as yet.
Where the excess liquidity is likely to show up however is not necessarily in consumer price inflation, but asset inflation, hurting fixed income investors and inflating dangerous asset bubbles.
Case in point has been the U.S. property market, where deferring mortgage payments supported by the government as well as near-zero interest rates has seen real estate prices in a majority of American cities remain stubbornly high despite an ongoing pandemic.
And with the U.S. Federal Reserve continuing to soak up mortgage-backed securities, real estate investors may be lulled into a false sense that property prices only move in one direction.
Regardless, momentary spikes in the dollar can still be expected from time to time, with investors taking bets that the greenback may be oversold, but the longer term trends are evident.

3. Balking at Bitcoin’s Bubbling?

  • Decreased weekend volumes for Bitcoin make it especially susceptible to wild price swings 
  • Concentration of majority of Bitcoin in a handful of digital wallet addresses means that automated trading relying on price information may exacerbate the wild price swings through purchase or sales of Bitcoin in large quantities over the weekend 
To the uninitiated, Bitcoin’s wild and extreme volatility can be heart-stopping.
Compared to traditional financial assets, a bet on Bitcoin requires more than a strong constitution, it requires Professor Xavier-levels of mindfulness.
On Monday, investors who had potentially taken their first foray into the cabal of cryptocurrencies were in for a rude shock as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were dumped out of the weekend, when trading volumes are typically lower.
Sliding as much as 26% over Sunday and Monday, Bitcoin saw its biggest 2-day slide since the Ides of March last year.
An estimated US$185 billion of market cap has been shaved off the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market value, more than the market cap of 90% firms listed on the S&P 500.
But accurate numbers in the cryptocurrency space require a combination of estimation and divination and depending on where one draws their data from, can paint vastly different portraits of Bitcoin’s prospects.
Open interest on the world’s only fully regulated cash-settled Bitcoin futures exchange, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, continues to be higher than at any time in the past, suggesting that institutional investors are continuing to take a bet on Bitcoin, one way or the other.
And considering that Bitcoin has more than quadrupled since 2020, some correction should be welcome.
After rallying to almost US$42,000 on the back of a flood of retail investors, some degree of profit-taking from investors who had bought Bitcoin in 2020 was bound to happen.
While many investors in Bitcoin, including some of the biggest institutional names, still believe that the long term trend for Bitcoin is bullish, they are also well aware that the cryptocurrency is likely to continue experiencing sharp and volatile swings in the interim.
And as more investors (especially retail investors) avail themselves of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, regulators are casting a wary eye over what continues to be a largely ungoverned industry.
Regulatory intervention, whether through legislation or more aggressive enforcement could serve to put a damper on Bitcoin’s seemingly relentless ascent.

But for those who have been trading in cryptocurrencies for some time, this is just another day in Bitcoin-paradise – welcome to the club and don’t forget to take some stomach pills. 

Novum Digital Asset Alpha is a digital asset quantitative trading firm.

Exclusive access to Novum Digital Asset Alpha’s Daily Analysis is made in conjunction with Bitcoin Malaysia.

The information and thoughts laid out in this analysis are strictly for information purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be in violation of any local laws.

It does not constitute a recommendation or take into account the particular allocation objectives, financial conditions, or needs of specific individuals.

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