Here Comes the Dinosaur Prophecy

What comes after the Cambrian explosion in crypto? A Permian extinction, naturally
by Edmund Yong, Co-founder of Celebrus Advisory

Who knew that Life can teach us a thing or two about Crypto?

Macroevolution, the study of how major life forms come and go, may have some interesting lessons in store for us. They show that Mother Nature is blindly and justifiably cruel. She killed all our dinosaur friends and left us some bones as souvenirs. She creates and destroys en masse, save for a few survivors. She alone knows why 99% of species that have ever lived on earth become extinct, and whether Homo Sapiens will ever evolve into Homo Samsung. Most assuredly, she is less merciful than Thanos, who snapped his fingers and half the universe turned to dust. If it was up to her, she wouldn’t have kept the other half alive out of random dumb luck.

But like Thanos and all Marvel anti-heroes, she too has her reasons and a compelling backstory.

It Begins With an Explosion of Life

  • A long, long time ago, different life forms began to burst forth concurrently at a spectacular rate during a period known as the “Cambrian Explosion”. This is the most important evolutionary event in the history of Life on earth. It was when most of the major animal groups we know of sprang up and appeared on the fossil record. Their origins can be traced to the very first founding generations in this period and how they have become bigger better versions of themselves today. It is like a biological version of the cosmic Big Bang – the starting point of Life with all its diversity and glory.

And Ends With Mass Extinctions

  • True to nature, environmental forces killed off most of the Cambrian animals due to something in the air or water. Down the geological line, similar factors also caused the massive Permian Extinctionor “The Great Dying”. It was the largest mass extinction in history, with nearly 95% of marine life and 70% of land organisms gone forever. In fact, as if to close off a chapter of evolution, what started in Cambrian eventually ended in Permian. Later dinosaurs roamed during the Jurassic and Cretaceous Periods but had to say goodbye too. It is a familiar cycle of evolution. Rinse and repeat.

Death Makes Greater Life Possible

  • Thanks to the deep rich graveyard of carcasses that are compressed by layers of sediment over the ages, we now have fossil fuels. These are the energy sources (like coal, oil and organic gas) that power up the generations that ensue – modern civilization in particular! In fact, most of the fossil fuels that are currently extracted were formed in the Carboniferous Period, between Cambrian and Permian. The world’s largest oil patch for the next decade that we hear so much about, is in the Permian Basin. As harsh as it sounds, it seems necessary for the first gen to die so that the future gens could flourish.

When Technology Imitates Life

  • The Internet had a similar path of creative explosion back in the 90s. When the world discovered how it can be applied, it was like a Renaissance in almost every facet of business, society, and politics. It changed the way we communicate. It ushered in a new Industrial Revolution with all its possibilities and extremities. Suddenly everything seemed dotcom-able, and anything with a dotcom automatically fetched value. Startups raced to build websites and markets put their faith on anything with a pulse. They could go straight to IPO without making any product let alone profit. Sound familiar?
  • And then came its reckoning. At the height of the Dotcom boom, the Nasdaq rose fivefold from 1000 to 5000 points. But when it burst, US$5 trillion in market value was wiped out completely (or roughly 18 times the size of Crypto today). Needless to say, there were blood on the streets but the ‘winner takes all’. What emerged from this purge is the megafauna we see today: Amazon, Google, Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Uber; stronger and more invincible than ever. The living owes the dead a huge favor. The new giants rise and stand on the pile of dead bodies that came before them. anyone?

Mother Nature is sacrificial – for the greater future good. She is not immoral, but amoral. Sacrificing the firstborn is even mentioned in scriptures. It paves the way for those who follow. Those who enter the door will always get shot at first. We need frontrunners so that the rest of us have time to duck. We need martyrs to inspire us to become a better version of ourselves. Call it the Experience Curve. Call it the Gartner Hype Cycle. Call it whatever you wish.

Finally, Coming Back to Crypto

We know the crypto tech bloom is prime for some culling. Crypto has exploded into an amazingly colorful flora covering all corners of the globe, at a much faster pace than blockchain did (or could do) by itself. Yes, life is teeming… but with useless life forms! There are now tens of thousands of ICOs with no real innovation or network activity. There are thousands of exchanges, most with no real markets or trading volume. And then there is mining, which does not seem very sustainable. Not to Mother Nature at least. We wonder why the mainstream is avoiding ICOs like the plague, but what if they are the plague? While some are optimistic that the industry can clean up its own act, what it needs is a serious shakedown. And we don’t mean just the prices but a purge.

Where does this leave us? Those who yearn for real growth understand that the time must come. That many must fall so that the few can arise and break through with new value. The 99% must die. If you are a business hunter, get your war chest ready. If you are a seasoned investor, prepare for the feast ahead. After the canaries stop singing, the vultures will come picking. Hear ye hear ye, there will be blood. It will be painful to witness and entertaining to watch.

Until then, this is our benediction:

O Mother Nature, we behold your noble sacrifice. Now taketh those shitcoins to slaughter, buryeth them in unmarked graves, so that the apple tree may grow. Godspeed!

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